Tailwind for renewable energy

The expansion of solar and wind energy goes hand in hand with major investments and increased production capacity coupled with more sustainable and more efficient technologies. A quick look at the status quo, the potential and the players.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that renewable energy capacity will increase to around 4,500 gigawatts (GW) by 2024. One gigawatt suffices to supply electricity to some 100,000 households in Germany. BloombergNEF (BNEF), the research provider, has reported that expansion on this scale will mean enormous investments, and in the first half of 2023 alone these rose by almost a quarter to 358 billion dollars compared to the same period last year.

Governments all over the world are working to further accelerate the energy transition. The European Union, for example, committed to doubling the rate of expansion of wind and solar plants with a new version of the Renewable Energy Directive in summer 2023. In the United States, the Inflation Reduction Act revised expansion targets upwards and at the same time marked the launch of a 738 billion dollar investment programme. The aim is not simply to expand capacity as quickly as possible. Reasserting the country’s claim to technological leadership is equally important.

Solar capacity worldwide

When it comes to investments in expanding solar energy, China is at the forefront worldwide. Approximately 164 billion dollars were invested up until 2022, bringing capacity to over 400 gigawatts. The EU follows in second place with less than half of that amount (see graphic below). The IEA estimates that in 2022 the People’s Republic probably covered 6.5 per cent of its electricity needs with solar power, compared to 12.4 per cent in Germany. This estimated “theoretical solar potential” relates to electricity generated under ideal conditions because the geographical location, orientation and climatic data of decentralised photovoltaic (PV) systems are not verifiable.

The rapid expansion of PV capacity in China can be accounted for by the erection of largescale solar parks. Several of the world’s largest plants with an output of up to 2 GW can be found there. By comparison, the most powerful solar projects in the EU are designed to generate around 1 GW, while in the US their capacity is even less. One solar power plant under construction in the Arab Emirate of Dubai is expected to deliver 5 GW of power by 2030. Work on the project began in 2012 and nearly half of the panels have been installed to date.

Ongoing development of solar technologies

The ongoing development of solar technology is mainly focused on questions such as how to make the solar modules more efficient and more sustainable as well as how best to utilise previously unsuitable land. Solar cell efficiency has steadily improved as a result of research and development activities. New technologies like the “tandem solar cell” offer significantly more potential than the silicon cells that are the norm today. The combination of stacked materials such as silicon and perovskite enables better absorption and conversion of incoming light. Efficiencies of more than 30 per cent were recently achieved by scientists under laboratory conditions; with conventional PV modules, the figure is around 20 per cent. Yet the biggest challenge is to obtain stable and efficient perovskite layers – essential to make tandem solar cells fit for mass application.

Nearly 174,000 heliostats, each with two mirrors, focus sunlight onto centralised solar towers in Mojave Desert in California – generating 392 MW of renewable energy under ideal conditions

In Europe, PV system manufacturer Hanwha Q CELLS and Helmholtz-Zentrum Berlin (HZB) are partnering on a project to research this technology. The US government, too, is lending its support to the continued development of tandem solar cells: in the summer of 2023, the Department of Energy commissioned the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) to set up a research centre dedicated to this field. Other renowned institutions such as Princeton University as well as businesses like the solar manufacturer CubicPV are likewise involved. CubicPV, specialised in the development of tandem solar modules made of perovskite and silicon, has secured an investment by the Bill Gates-led Breakthrough Energy Ventures in a round of financing worth 100 million dollars.

Potential of organic solar cells

So-called organic solar cells could represent a more sustainable alternative to silicon-only cells. Made from hydrocarbon compounds, they are lightweight, ultra-thin and flexible and suitable for mounting on curved roofs, vehicles or aircraft wings. So far, however, their efficiency of only nine per cent has not been good enough for the mass market. That situation could now change: scientists in Hong Kong have succeeded in converting 19 per cent of the incoming solar energy into electricity. According to Professor Karl Leo, a leading researcher in solar cell technology, this high efficiency value was possible because the materials were optimised for the laboratory tests. However he also confirms that an almost identical technology is already being used in practice by Heliatek, a solar film manufacturer he co-founded with five other researchers from TU Dresden back in 2006.

This German-based company has been massproducing organic solar cells since 2019. Guido van Tartwijk, Heliatek’s CEO, points out that although the quantity manufactured so far, specifically 2 million square metres of foil, may be only small compared to the number of silicon cells, a second plant is already in the pipeline. The manufacturer is currently world market leader where organic solar cells are concerned and has submitted applications for 430 patents linked to the technology, including for the materials, modules and engineering.

Expansion plans for wind energy

The expansion of wind energy is likewise being driven by targeted investments and technological advances. As announced by the Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC), the total installed capacity of wind turbines operating across the world exceeded one terawatt for the first time ever in June 2023. The Council’s forecast assumes that this strong growth will continue unbroken (see graphic below). China is hoping to boost its capacity to 200 GW by 2025 and the Inflation Reduction Act, too, places a special emphasis on offshore wind farms: US President Joe Biden has set a target of 30 GW by 2030 and 110 GW by 2050.

Meanwhile, European countries bordering the North Sea have plans to turn the latter into the “largest power plant in the world” with a capacity of 300 gigawatts. In this connection, the biggest tender ever for offshore wind farms worldwide ended in the summer of 2023 – with an unexpected outcome: the oil companies Total and BP secured the areas of the North and Baltic Seas in question for 12.6 billion euros. In doing so, they waived a government-guaranteed feed-in tariff. Industry experts saw this as confirmation of growing market pressure.

Furthermore, Tennet, the Dutch transmission system operator, has announced that it will invest 30 billion euros to connect these wind farms with 14 offshore grid connection systems.

Repowering for onshore wind farms

The figures for onshore energy expansion were slightly down in 2022, for which – according to the GWEC – the United States was primarily responsible. Nevertheless, the number of new installations recorded overall was the second highest ever – with 71 per cent of them in the top 5 markets, namely China, the US, Brazil, Germany and Sweden. Global capacity thus totalled 842 gigawatts at the end of the year, and the GWEC forecast anticipates further dynamic development.

Apart from new installations, a process referred to as “repowering” also plays a key role when it comes to onshore wind power targets. “The EU intends to expand wind energy from 200 GW today to 1,300 GW by 2050. Only about 300 GW of this will be offshore and 1,000 gigawatts onshore”, explains WindEurope spokesman Christoph Zipf. Germany alone is planning to build new onshore wind turbines with a capacity of 10 GW per year from 2025 onwards – about five times as much as at present.
However, as Zipf comments, this does not mean that five times as much land will be needed: “There are currently 30,000 plants in Germany. All in all, though, despite the high expansion targets, we won’t be needing more than 40,000 wind turbines.” The reason is that modern turbines are significantly more powerful than older models; on the other hand, they have taller towers and larger rotor blades. Repowering saves time, space and resources compared to building new plants because the new capacity is created at sites that are already established and approved.

Mega wind turbines in coastal waters

Wind turbines on both repowered and newly built wind farms are getting bigger in size – especially offshore. Manufacturers from the US, Europe and China are working to construct the tallest and most powerful turbines in their respective coastal waters. General Electric (GE) in the United States as well as several Chinese firms have announced their intention to develop wind turbines with a capacity of up to 18 megawatts. A benchmark for dimensioning mega turbines like these has been provided by the China State Shipbuilding Corporation (CSSC).

The company calculated that a single one of its wind turbines with a 260-metre diameter rotor could supply 40,000 households per year with electricity. Under ideal conditions, one revolution is sufficient to fully charge an electric car with a 40 kWh battery. Meanwhile, other manufacturers are planning to build even larger wind turbines with rotor diameters of more than 280 metres.

Yet the technology race also has its downsides. Siemens Gamesa, one of the world’s leading wind turbine manufacturers, had to shoulder financial burdens running into billions in 2023 due to quality defects in its 4.X and 5.X generations. The share price plummeted as a result. As one insider remarked to Handelsblatt, the German trade journal, “We didn’t have another product, but we had to put a new one on the market all the same”.

One fundamental problem is that new production lines or even new factories are generally needed to manufacture ever larger wind turbines. Added to this are aspects such as price pressure, supply chain issues and lengthy approval procedures. It was against this background that Anders Nielsen, Chief Technology Officer of turbine manufacturer Vestas, demanded, “Something has to change – we need to slow down. Not come up with yet another turbine that’s even bigger.”

New production lines or even new factories are often needed to manufacture ever larger wind turbines

Upgrades for other energy infrastructure

BNEF estimates that electricity storage capacity totalling 411 gigawatts will be necessary by 2030 – 15 times more than at the beginning of the 2020s – to make sure that renewable energy is available in the evenings as well as during windless periods. The research provider’s calculations show that the power grid, too, is an important factor: by 2050, 80 million kilometres of additional power lines will be required in order to guarantee efficient transport to consumers. After all, the distances between the plants generating the renewable energy, especially wind and hydropower, and the places where that power is actually needed are often considerable. The present electricity grid is not designed to transport large amounts of energy over hundreds of kilometres.

Materials for modern energy infrastructure

The technologies and their electrical and electronic components must function safely and reliably in the long term, regardless of whether they are used to upgrade the electricity grid or for the ongoing development of energy storage systems or of solar and wind power plants. The thermal conductivity, flowability or reactivity of Wevo’s potting compounds, adhesives, sealants and gap fillers based on polyurethane, epoxy and silicone can be adapted for this purpose to meet individual requirements.

The materials simultaneously provide reliable electrical insulation for components such as capacitors, insulators or sensors along with permanent protection against environmental conditions, including moisture, UV radiation and salty air. As a result, power transmission using HVDC (high-voltage direct current) technology is possible – as well as technological advances related to the intermediate storage of wind and solar energy.

Technologies for a renewable future

These examples are clear confirmation that the energy transition is in full swing. Nonetheless, putting them into practice is, and will remain, a challenge. Innovative, efficient, resource-conserving technologies are important building blocks here – for a climate-neutral future.

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Image sources: Image 1: Massimo Cavallo, Image 2: Bernhard Lang, Image 3: Paul-Langrock.de

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